Playing an inconvenient game of chess, the North Korean administration moved their missile pieces away from launch positions. Like the shower tap, the relations on the peninsular has always been either fantastically hot or fucking freezing. Only for very fleeting moments was the temperature just right.
I believe the Koreas will never intentionally go to war.
There is far too much to lose in the South: economy, prosperity, happiness of every citizen.
Though the same can’t be said of the people in the North, our pudgy leader and his cronies are wallowing in opulence and living the life of royalty. To give all that up for a chance to be dead is not a good bargain.
There is little the world can do. The best the South had done was through Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine Policy of 1998. It was most unfortunate then that it was party politics that caused a u-turn in North Korean relations and observably, hardball tactics returned.
That said, the opportunity for accidental war, is very high. With provocations like shelling of a sovereign island or torpedoing of a military ship – there is possibility that the Southern forces will retaliate and usher in a battle whose scale their leaders cannot control.
How long will this go on for? Well, the North runs a totalitarian regime and there is no way they can be displaced apart from violent conflict. And for this event, they have been and will continue to be well prepared for.
The biggest favour the world, and especially China, can do… is to convince this regime that a free market system will do them more good than harm. That there is nothing to fear. Industries, corporations and businesses need to come in to pave the way, that was what the Kaesong Industrial Zone was set out to do.
Freedom is won through the barrels of profit.
Profit leads to distribution of wealth. The people of the North badly need this wealth to take them out of poverty and into happiness, which isn’t too much to ask for.
If for some reason this article makes its way into the computers of Pyongyang, my wish and greetings to Kim would be that of an economical experiment. Carve aside a small state, give free market economics a go. When people are happy, I believe that they would stand up and fight for their Leader with far more faith and conviction than any amount of fear can.
I would tell Kim that love and concern for your citizens is far easier to implement and manage than fear.